The Sarin Cloud
Col. Sam Gardiner, USAF (ret) to samgard + 58 more
...hangs over Seoul.

This morning's news is saying that satellites have detected activity at the North Korea nuclear site. It's the kind of activity that has been seen prior to nuclear tests.

Republican lawmakers are calling the North Korean as "killers" for the death of the University of Virginia student who had been held captive there.

Yesterday, we learned that the President seems to have given up on China as a solution to the issues.
Clearly the DPRK continues to be a major security issues for the United States.

I have been exchanging with a chemical effects researcher. His models suggest our previous estimates of South Korean casualties were low. The Atlantic's cover story this month addresses options for dealing with the threat.

I've copied the reference to the estimates of chemical casualties. In addition to what is mentioned in the paragraph, original estimates were based upon the effect of the gas on military age males.

How to Deal With North Korea

"And with only a few of its worst weapons, North Korea could, probably within hours, kill millions. This means an American first strike would likely trigger one of the worst mass killings in human history. In 2005, Sam Gardiner, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel who specialized in conducting war games at the National War College, estimated that the use of sarin gas alone would produce 1 million casualties. Gardiner now says, in light of what we have learned from gas attacks on civilians in Syria, that the number would likely be three to five times greater."



The article on “Sea of Sarin” has been published by “Bulletin of Atomic Scientists” this morning.

I had made a change in the before case by using the same rate of breathing as assumed in the IDA figures. This in effect decreased the overall tonnage of Sarin required from 360 tons to 240 tons.

Reid Kirby